Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 22.817470 27.397471 32.455561 38.428257 45.259122 52.798286 61.718100
2025-02-23 15.855501 21.772483 29.001932 38.360931 50.021486 63.931034 81.624652
2025-03-02 11.687171 17.906406 26.141748 37.580090 52.759812 71.898494 97.495626
2025-03-09 9.162641 15.452915 24.377542 37.519455 55.871435 80.040521 113.637966
2025-03-16 6.806681 12.660269 21.558356 35.426118 55.748027 83.613622 123.733364
2025-03-23 5.805167 11.703338 21.182653 36.630732 60.123991 93.335516 142.417418
2025-03-30 4.673754 10.271253 19.809954 36.084440 61.777168 99.213044 155.970731
2025-04-06 4.174292 9.844284 19.972479 37.888143 67.001695 110.411792 177.508773
2025-04-13 3.118478 8.114294 17.632158 35.301802 65.128269 110.951301 183.550751
2025-04-20 2.688392 7.546321 17.263775 35.960703 68.405862 119.332617 201.446063
2025-04-27 2.361572 7.124668 17.096898 36.924764 72.204857 128.655731 221.105852
2025-05-04 2.111131 6.819402 17.104949 38.181150 76.542130 138.989066 242.686949
2025-05-11 1.813928 6.372777 16.856961 39.122530 80.739069 149.852981 266.468697
2025-05-18 1.473599 5.717694 16.076365 38.986547 83.097807 157.989910 286.584013
2025-05-25 1.157812 5.012140 15.041553 38.191409 84.154674 163.972835 303.475364
2025-06-01 0.942922 4.525503 14.413144 38.129737 86.516680 172.220586 324.331096
2025-06-08 0.681779 3.757403 12.922795 36.008769 84.739979 173.188274 333.155778
2025-06-15 0.596224 3.589722 12.946946 37.229311 89.544416 185.885776 362.075027
2025-06-22 0.468428 3.185094 12.239230 36.675809 90.740637 192.182916 380.356327
2025-06-29 0.426498 3.134648 12.529212 38.503242 96.903546 207.720190 415.038182
2025-07-06 0.290588 2.543018 11.068424 35.882803 93.599552 205.715529 419.186208
2025-07-13 0.245297 2.388892 10.932217 36.550435 97.300970 216.882665 446.825628
2025-07-20 0.211626 2.278903 10.917447 37.527216 101.729712 229.599764 477.632229